Self-driving cars could spark a cycling revolution

The
future’s bright, cyclists say.
Charlie
Crowhurst/Getty Images for Challenge
Triathlon

LONDON — David Wynter knows the risks cyclists face on the roads
as well as anyone.

The first time he was hit by a vehicle was in May 2014 in East
London, by a van making a U-turn without checking its mirrors.
“Took me five weeks to fully recover,” he said.

The second time was a little over a year later. Wynter, who is
CEO of London data management startup Yambina, collided with a
woman turning right into his lane. “Sprained my left wrist,
needed a brace on it, a few cuts and deep bruises including my
cheek where my cycling glasses cut into it.”

Most people who cycle regularly in cities have a story (or two)
like this — or at least know someone who does.

The increased popularity of cycling, heightened driver awareness,
and bike lane initiatives are helping to improve hazardous
conditions. However, it doesn’t get around the fact that many
urban areas are just hopelessly designed for cyclists and drivers
to share the road.

But some cyclists, technologists, and automobile manufacturers
are starting to eagerly look at a surprising solution:
Self-driving cars.

Some cyclists think a golden age is right around the corner

Self-driving cars, long a dream, are finally becoming a reality.
Everyone from Google to Audi, from Uber to Volkswagen, are
heavily investing in and developing the technology. The goal is
to create totally autonomous vehicles, capable of driving in
real-world conditions without any human input.

Right now, 94% of all car accidents in the US are due to human
error, according
to Google. Roads are dangerous, and doubly so for cyclists,
who don’t have metal casing to protect them.

But self-driving tech — in theory — has significant advantages
over any human driver. It won’t tire. It won’t get bored. It
won’t be tempted to break the rules of the road. It will be able
to look in every direction simultaneously. And crucially, it will
have super-human reaction speeds.

Together, it all adds up to potential massive improvement in
safety — the kind that historically hadn’t been possible without
major urban redevelopment.
By some estimates, self-driving cars could save 300,000 lives
a decade in the United States alone.

A
cyclist passes an early Google self-driving car in
2012
Justin Sullivan/Getty
Images

Dr. Miklós Kiss, head of predevelopment piloted systems at Audi,
thinks self-driving cars could be a boon to cyclists. It will
“make it easier for cyclists because the behavior of automated
cars will be more predictable than now,” he told Business
Insider.

Many cyclists are equally enthusiastic. “If self-driving cars are
proven safer for cyclists and pedestrians, cyclists would lay out
the red carpet and welcome the revolution with both arms,”
Andreas Kambanis, founder of biking site LondonCyclist.co.uk,
told Business Insider.

Here
we go, here we go, here we go.
Alex
Livesey/Getty Images

“Just under 50% of cyclist deaths on London’s roads are caused by
HGVs, so if the technology extended there, we’d immediately
eliminate a huge danger.”

He added: “Beyond the safety aspect, self driving cars may also
be more of a pleasure to drive around, as you wouldn’t expect it
to do something erratic or to drive aggressively. This may in
turn mean more cyclists on the road as the roads will now feel
safer.”

Eli Allalouf, a director at Alyo International, used to bike
everywhere, he said. “But after my second bicycle were stolen and
too many injuries cycling on the road I have given up … I would
love to have the ability to ride my bicycle every day to work but
the risk is too high as I am a family man with kids and wife …
After a certain period of the fully automated cars I think there
will be a huge spike in cycling.”

Accounting for cyclists isn’t easy, say self-driving car
companies

However, engineers working on the technology say that learning to
deal with cyclists is throwing up unique challenges. They’re
small, fast in urban environments, and nimble — but also
relatively slow on open roads, and immensely vulnerable.

“Cyclists are more dynamic than cars. The biggest challenge is to
predict their future behavior and driving route. Cyclists can be
found on the road and on sidewalks too. Compared to cars they are
not limited to only one road space. Sometimes cyclists do not
obey traffic rules completely (red light-violators, etc.),”
Audi’s Dr. Miklós Kiss said.

“Cyclists need their own behavior prediction model as they behave
differently to car drivers and pedestrians.”

Karl Iagnemma, CEO of autonomous tech startup Nutonomy, has
encountered similar problems. “All autonomous vehicles under
development today are being designed to detect and avoid
cyclists. This requires that the sensing systems be specifically
‘trained’ to detect cyclists, and that the navigation systems be
instructed how to maneuver in the presence of cyclists.”

Renault-Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn takes a particularly dim view,
telling CNBC in January 2016 that “one of the biggest
problems [for self-driving cars] is people with bicycles.”

Google’s
software can detect cyclists’ hand signals and use them to figure
out what the cyclist is planning to do next.
Google

“They don’t respect any rules usually,” he claimed. “The car is
confused by them, because from time-to-time they behave like
pedestrians and from time-to-time they behave like cars.”

Google, one of the most high-profile developers of the tech,
isn’t trash-talking cyclists — but recognises the difficulties
they can pose.
In its June 2016 progress report, Google’s self-driving car
team explained how its vehicles treat cyclists
differently (and “conservatively”) to other road users.

“For example, when our sensors detect a parallel-parked car with
an open door near a cyclist, our car is programmed to slow down
or nudge over to give the rider enough space to move towards the
center of the lane and avoid the door,” the Google team wrote.

“We also aim to give cyclists ample buffer room when we pass, and
our cars won’t squeeze by when cyclists take the center of the
lane, even if there’s technically enough space. Whether the road
is too narrow or they’re making a turn, we respect this
indication that cyclists want to claim their lane.”

And because cyclists don’t have indicator lights, the technology
has to predict cyclists’ intentions another way: By reading their
hand gestures using its in-built cameras.

An
Uber driverless Ford Fusion drives down Smallman Street on
September, 22, 2016 in Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania.
Jeff Swensen/Getty
Images

Uber’s self-driving car trials in December 2016 clearly
illustrated the dangers the tech can pose to cyclists if not
properly implemented. Its vehicles were performing a “right hook”
turn that put cyclists at serious risk —
with the San Francisco Bike Coalition calling it “one of the
primary causes of collisions between cars and people who bike
resulting in serious injury or fatality.”

Uber opted to keep its vehicles in circulation,
to the alarm of cycling advocates, and had human drivers make
the turn manually instead. Thankfully there were no reported
injuries, and the trial was subsequently ended
after the California DMV revoked the registrations of the
vehicles because they didn’t have a license for the tests.

Self-driving cars aren’t a reason to stop supporting cyclists

Cyclists
stage a “die-in” protest in London to raise awareness of road
safety.
Peter Macdiarmid/Getty
Images

These technological challenges — while tricky — are all
theoretically surmountable. Companies like Renault-Nissan say
they want autonomous vehicles
in commercial production by 2020.

With
over 50,000 cyclists injured in road accidents in America in
2014 (and
another 21,000 in the UK), that date can’t come quickly
enough.

“There will a point where the number of accidents involving cars
and cyclists will improve,” David Wynter said. “Only then will
the public feel it is safer to commute in the cities.”

However, Andreas Kambanis, from LondonCyclist.co.uk, cautions
that self-driving vehicles will not be a panacea for everything
currently wrong with cycling in cities — and must not be used as
an excuse to slack on supporting cyclists in other ways.. “There
is one big caveat to all of this. London’s roads are already
heavily congested and polluted, more cars isn’t going to solve
this problem, so the city must continue to invest in
infrastructure that considers cyclists.”