Bitcoin: To Infinity And Beyond?

Bitcoin has blown through $2,100.00 seemingly on a one-way trip to infinity, and beyond. It may take a while for the crypto-currency to get to infinity. But, as its unabated pace shows it may actually get there. There are more reasons to pick up Bitcoin as news that a Japanese airline is going to allow Bitcoin as a form of payment. While Bitcoin is not widely accepted in the United States or elsewhere, it is turning a corner in other parts of the world. As more companies accept Bitcoin as a form of payment, it is a matter of time before there is a shift in the U.S. and other parts of the world. Bitcoin will continue its climb higher.

Since April’s legislative move in Japan to make Bitcoin a legal currency, the price has been a one-way move. Now, Bitcoin can add yet another reason to its upward price movement: A Japanese airline will begin accepting Bitcoin as a form of payment. This continues to legitimize

the crypto-currency. It starts out as just one company allowing acceptance of the coin. Then, others follow. Then, Bitcoin becomes a way of life as a form of payment. And, as the currency’s demand increases so does its value. Keep in mind that there is a limited amount of coins; there are only 20 million coins in existence. However, you can use partial coins; you do not need to buy just one coin. This is why the coin’s value continues to increase because of the limitation on the total coins in circulation while its widespread use and demand increases.

In an article last week, I talked about Bitcoin and its fundamentals. There were a couple of comments that brought this subject up and thought it was laughable. Perhaps in that individual’s part of the world, Bitcoin has zero acceptability. But, that is far too narrow of a viewpoint. In Japan, the number of reasons to get into Bitcoin are too many to count.

In the United States, there was an attempt at an ETF that was turned down by the SEC – the commission is revisiting its decision. First, I do not believe that an ETF will have any impact on the crypto-currency, whatsoever. In fact, I see this as pushing on a string. The rationale behind denying the ETF was that the exchanges themselves have no guarantees, and I agree with that. I see problems with exchanges all the time. But, the widespread use of Bitcoin means that this will help alleviate these problems. If more and more users come to market then there is greater and greater volumes. Also, if there are any exchanges out there that are marginal they will either be pushed to make-or-break levels. Do your research about the exchanges you use.

However, and this is the most important thing, and the reason I think the SEC got it completely wrong: My wallet is secure. Your wallet is secure. Our transaction is secure. There is no intermediaries. The process works and we both agree on this process and the price of Bitcoin at that very moment. But, for whatever reason, the SEC looked at the exchanges as a hang up. Who cares about an exchange out in Bangladesh? I don’t use that exchange so why is it a variable in the thoughts of the crypto-currency?

In Japan, the Bank of Japan is in the process of diluting their currency into oblivion. The Bank of Japan has been printing money in a process to increase inflation and stimulate the economy. They are not making much headway. In the meantime, Bitcoin offers an alternative to the Japanese yen that cannot be diluted. And, if people continue to repeat history, then the price of Bitcoin has one direction to go: Up. But, in comparison, the Japanese yen has one direction to go: Down. Both forms of payment are now legal. Your choice.

As far as diluting a currency goes, what is the difference between Japan and the United States? Mathematically, as it turns out, not a whole helluva lot. Here are the charts on the respective balance sheets for both the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve:

Just before the massive QE programs in Japan, the Bank of Japan had approximately ¥1.50 trillion in their balance sheet. They have now pushed their balance sheet up to ¥5 trillion a multiple of 2.33. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet was $800 billion and now sits at $4.5 trillion, a multiple of 2.27. Hmmm… The difference is? Negligible. And, yet, Japanese citizens are pushing into Bitcoin at an unprecedented and impressive pace. These are fundamentals and they are formidable.

As for the United States and Europe, the countries are likely to simply ignore Bitcoin as long as they can until they can figure out way to make money off of it, read: Taxation. If you want to know how someone is going to respond look at their incentives. So far, the major government’s of the world Have largely ignored Bitcoin. At some point, these governments may – or, may not – address the crypto-currency. I see it as an alternative to cash… With the added benefit that it just keeps going up simply because there is a set, limited supply. However, there are some 7 billion potential users of

which the percentage of actual users is likely to be in the tenth and hundredths, if not tenths of thousandths of a decimal point. In other words, the number of people using Bitcoin is minuscule at best, but going upward.

Last week, I thought for sure that Bitcoin would finally take a breather. Nope. More news comes out stating that there are more reasons to be long Bitcoin, not to mention the fact that Bitcoin may now become a hedge against risk in the world. With the price of Bitcoin at $1,725.00, I had gone long a risk reversal to the downside: I was long $1,650.00 puts, over short $1,800.00 calls (Both one-week). When the price dipped into the upper 1,600 handle a buddy of mine called in the middle of the night and implored me to cover the position. He is long and saw the futility of a short position in Bitcoin. I did not relent. Instead, I did a covered delta hedge going long .35 delta thinking that if the price drops the rest of my put position would be profitable and I could then sit on the long positions once the downside move was over with. That trade began to make a lot of sense to me.

Then, the price turned and just kept soaring higher, and higher, and higher and higher. It did this on formidable fundamentals. I had to begin the process of covering my short $1,800.00 calls and did so with delta hedging… And, Bitcoin kept going higher on a one-way ticket upward. There was an over $500.00 point swing. Because of my delta hedge, I was able to put on a bit of armor and protect the downside of my position, and in fact, after that $500.00 swing upward in price, I was profitable. I earned $1.00. I only wish that was a joke. I took that profit simply because of a bit of pride and a bit of a learning lesson.

Lesson learned?: Listen to your own analysis. I will remain long BTCUSD from this point forward, although, I will get out from time-to-time if the currency looks set to take a breather. But, I will not take the opposite side of this trade again. The fundamentals continue to improve in favor of more and more users getting into Bitcoin while there supply is limited… And, now I can use it to buy a plane ticket and travel throughout Asia.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a long position in COIN, LONG BTCUSD over the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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